Weekly Market Recap: What Moved Tech Stocks This Week
A summary of the key macro events, earnings surprises, and structural shifts that impacted our core tech portfolio over the last five sessions.
What a week it's been for tech. We saw some significant rotation out of high-flyers and into more defensive software names as macro headlines dominated the chatter.
Macro Drivers
The primary driver this week was the unexpected CPI data which sent Treasury yields higher, putting immediate pressure on growth multiples. However, as we've discussed in previous updates, the "AI infrastructure spend" remains decoupled from interest rate volatility for now.
Consensus snapshot
| Fiscal period ending | Revenue estimate | YoY growth | Low | High | # of analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ4 2025 (Jan 2025) | 38.01B | 71.97% | 36.35B | 42.08B | 41 |
| FQ1 2026 (Apr 2025) | 42.04B | 61.41% | 39.40B | 46.96B | 35 |
| FQ2 2026 (Jul 2025) | 46.18B | 53.72% | 42.00B | 53.40B | 35 |
| FQ3 2026 (Oct 2025) | 51.33B | 46.33% | 37.55B | 76.17B | 34 |
| FQ4 2026 (Jan 2026) | 56.31B | 48.13% | 31.13B | 100.87B | 32 |
"Volatility is the price of admission for asymmetric returns. Those who fold on macro noise miss the structural reset."
As we dissect the latest data, one thing becomes clear: the consolidation we're seeing in major caps isn't an exit of capital, but a refinement of conviction. Investors are moving from "AI Generalists" to "Infrastructure Specialists."
Insights from the field
@bethkindig on X / Twitter
"NVIDIA just announced Q4 earnings and the numbers are insane. 400% DC growth isn't just a beat — it's a structural reset for the entire industry. This is what we mean by asymmetric returns."
We are currently maintaining our overweight position in data center infrastructure while trimming some peripheral software plays that haven't shown clear AI revenue paths yet.
Stay tuned for our full subscriber-only deep dive on Wednesday where we'll look at three specific mid-cap names that caught our eye this week.
Expand your knowledge
Understanding the "New Normal" in Tech Multiples
How current valuation frameworks are evolving to account for the exponential growth of generative AI infrastructure.
Why AI Infrastructure Spend Is Decoupling From Rates
A framework for thinking about capex durability when Treasury yields move faster than consensus expects.
Nvidia Q4 Earnings: The Numbers Behind the 400% Data Center Growth
A line-by-line breakdown of guidance, gross margins, and Hopper-to-Blackwell transition mechanics that quietly raise the long-term ceiling.
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