Market Commentary
Weekly recaps, macro notes, and portfolio context from the I/O Fund research team — written for serious tech investors.
Insights, fresh off the desk
Understanding the "New Normal" in Tech Multiples
How current valuation frameworks are evolving to account for the exponential growth of generative AI infrastructure.
Why AI Infrastructure Spend Is Decoupling From Rates
A framework for thinking about capex durability when Treasury yields move faster than consensus expects.
Nvidia Q4 Earnings: The Numbers Behind the 400% Data Center Growth
A line-by-line breakdown of guidance, gross margins, and Hopper-to-Blackwell transition mechanics that quietly raise the long-term ceiling.
Meta and Google: The Secret AI Winners of 2025
Why hyperscaler ad-stack monetization is the most underappreciated AI revenue stream — and how it reframes the FCF story for both names.
Reading the Fed: Rate Path Implications for Tech Positioning
Mapping plausible 2025 policy paths to growth-stock duration risk, with concrete portfolio adjustments for each scenario.
The AI Inference Monetization Wave Has Quietly Begun
OpenAI, Anthropic, and the cloud GPU footprint signals an inflection from training-cost dominance to inference revenue at scale.
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